OIL MARKET

PEAK GLOBAL OIL DEMAND REMAINS WITHIN SIGHT

Oil demand surged by a notable 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, largely propelled by robust economic momentum in non-OECD nations, and spearheaded by a vigorous recovery in China following COVID-19-induced lockdowns.

That was the prognosis of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its February 2024 report. For this year, the group expects global oil demand growth to sustain its robust pace, estimated at a healthy 2.2 million bpd, with consumption forecast for the third quarter at 104.4 million bpd, and 105.47 million bpd in the fourth quarter. The upswing mirrors the anticipated sturdy economic expansion for the year.

Within OECD countries, oil demand for 2024 is envisaged to ascend by approximately 0.3 million bpd. Among the OECD regions, the Americas are seen leading the charge in oil demand growth for 2024, escalating by 0.2 million bpd year on year (y-o-y). Meanwhile, Europe and Asia Pacific are poised to advance by roughly 60,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd, y-o-y, respectively, marking an improvement from the contraction witnessed in 2023.

In the non-OECD arena, oil demand for 2024 is expected to rise by approximately 2 million bpd, y-o-y, having surpassed pre-pandemic levels as early as 2022. The impetus behind this surge is primarily attributed to China, with an anticipated robust growth of 0.6 million bpd y-o-y, further buoyed by the Middle East with an approximate increase of 0.4 million bpd, y-o-y. Other Asian nations are anticipated to surge by 0.3 million bpd, y-o-y, while India is set to expand by over 0.2 million bpd, y-o-y.

In terms of product demand, transportation fuels are slated to be the principal drivers of global oil demand. Consumption of jet/kerosene and gasoline is expected to soar by 0.7 million bpd and 0.6 million bpd, y-o-y, respectively. Gasoline consumption is anticipated to surpass pre-pandemic levels significantly, while jet/kerosene consumption is projected to hover just below the levels witnessed in 2019.

   

AIRTRAVEL AND MOBILITY BUOY DEMAND

Diesel consumption is forecasted to grow by 0.3 million bpd, y-o-y, surpassing pre-pandemic levels for the second consecutive year, supported by robust economic activity. Heavy distillates are projected to expand by 0.2 million bpd, whereas light distillates are anticipated to increase by 0.5 million bpd, propelled by healthy petrochemical sector requisites.

Demand in non-OECD regions, growth is expected to be led by y-o-y increments in jet/kerosene consumption of approximately 0.5 million bpd, with total regional volumes nearly reaching 2019 levels. Gasoline consumption is also anticipated to surge by almost 0.5 million bpd, y-o-y, with the total volume surpassing pre-pandemic levels by around 10%. Gasoil/diesel in the region is projected to grow by over 0.3 million bpd, y-o-y, having already exceeded pre-pandemic levels back in 2021.

“Continued robust economic activity in China, global air travel recovery and expected healthy petrochemical feedstock requirements will be key for oil demand growth in 2024,” according to OPEC. “However, inflation levels, monetary tightening measures and sovereign debt levels could weigh on global oil demand prospects in the current year.”

Looking ahead, world oil demand in 2025 is expected to expand by a healthy 1.8 million bpd, y-o-y, reaching 106.2 million bpd. Within the regions, the OECD is anticipated to grow by 0.1 million bpd, y-o-y, while the non-OECD will likely increase by 1.7 million bpd.

"Given current market circuumstances, ongoing efforts by (OPEC countries and its allies) participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) remain critical to achieving a balanced and stable oil market for the benefit of producers, consumers and global economy,” according to OPEC.

NEWTIGHT GAS PRODUCTION

from its South Ghawar operational area two months ahead of schedule. The development supports Aramco’s strategy to increase gas production by more than half, over 2021 levels, through 2030, subject to domestic demand.

Saudi Aramco successfully produced the first unconventional tight gas from its South Ghawar operational area two months ahead of schedule. The development supports Aramco’s strategy to increase gas production by more than half, over 2021 levels, through 2030, subject to domestic demand.

The commissioned facilities at South Ghawar currently boast a processing capacity of 300 million standard cubic feet per day (scfd) for raw gas and 38,000 barrels per day (bpd) for condensate. In response to the escalating demand for gas, the company is steadfastly pursuing efforts to more than double the overall processing capacity, aligning with South Ghawar's strategic objective of delivering 750 million scfd of raw gas in the near term.

The successful production of tight sand gas at South Ghawar marks Aramco's second foray into unconventional gas streams, following the commencement of production at the North Arabia field in 2018, which delivered 240 million scfd to customers in Wa’ad Al-Shamal. Concurrently, endeavours are underway at the colossal Jafurah unconventional gas field, recognised as the largest liquid-rich shale gas play in the Middle East region.

Separately, Aramco said in January that it received directives from the Ministry of Energy to maintain its maximum sustainable capacity at 12 million bpd.