The back-to-back praise and assessment of solid fiscal fundamentals from ratings agencies, and favourable economic indicators in the first quarter suggest that the Saudi authorities’ efforts to transform the economy are paying off. Fitch Ratings Service said it was affirming the kingdom’s A+ rating with a stable outlook, on the back of an estimated sovereign net foreign assets, which are one of the highest among sovereigns it rates. Fitch also noted that the country’s fiscal policy stance supports an acceleration of non-oil growth to 2.5% in 2019-2020. “Structural reforms under the Vision 2030 programme could boost growth over the medium term,” Fitch said. A day later, Moody’s Investors Service said Saudi Arabia's credit profile was supported by very high fiscal and economic strength and external liquidity buffers. The ratings agency expects the kingdom’s economic growth to hover around 2% to 2.5% over the next few years, but “positive developments could stem from the implementation of reforms that enhance competitiveness and private-sector employment while moving the budget towards balance, independent of fluctuations in oil prices.” The positive prognosis comes amid strong first quarter results that showed surging revenues and a more subdued growth in expenditures. While the oil sector was a strong driver, the non-oil sector also rose 46% during the period, according to Ministry of Finance data. Another key indicator is the rising number of new residential mortgages in the first quarter of 2019, jumping an astonishing 221% during the period, compared to the same period last year, according to the Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority. Finally, the Financial Sector Conference in April gave the Saudi government the platform to showcase the strength of its financial services industry, the multitude of opportunities available across various industries and parts of the Saudi economy, and the growth potential that remains largely untapped in the kingdom. |